At the moment the NZD is doing relatively well with everything going the bullish way, this is buoyed from all the good news from Australia and China. In today’s Asian session we saw a small retreat of the NZD before a resumption of the bullish rally to the 0.698 region which is by the way this year’s high and another thing to note is that this pair is becoming more volatile as we approach the all important 0.70 level, it grew from a daily average of 70 pips to the current average of 90 pips and by today’s high, already 50 pips has been covered meaning that 80% of today pip range has been covered.
Anyways, with today RBA minute meetings already out and their GDP growing by 0.6% with a recovery of Copper prices; let’s see what it had on this pair’s chart:
Daily Chart Analysis
From the chart above, there are two things that happened yesterday, price action closed above the miniature double tops which acted as a temporary resistance and at the moment, price action is around the new trend line resistance which acted as a support-it is very clear in the weekly chart-from mid last year. We shall however have to wait and see what will happen though the volumes in this pair is on the rise and the fact that volume drives momentum and the 20 day moving average slope being positive, the bullish trend may continue for the next couple of weeks also considering now that our 5 month’s resistance was broken and price is trending above it.
From a fundamental perspective, we wait for US building permits which will be released at 12:30 GMT with a forecast of 1.20M from earlier 1.18M, meaning economists are forecasting an improvement of the economy and more citizens are building new houses and the GDT Price index from New Zealand will be released at a tentative time, usually around1400-1500Hrs GMT. Any improvement of dairy product auction price will further fuel the bullish rally and that should be put into consideration.
4HR Chart Analysis
The support, now resistance line, formed from the weekly charts-highlighted above seems to have been broken in this chart and price action is aiming towards the one month resistance trend line. Volume and momentum are on sync and there is a candle stick hugging the upper BB meaning that momentum is strong and price action will even trend higher. If there are corrections, it will be wise to buy at these pullbacks and be on trend.
15 Chart Analysis
Yesterday’s price action was oscillating on a bullish and rising channel as shown above. Price moved 100 pips yesterday after the CPI news and at the moment, price is trending towards the 161.8 Fibonacci level with all the indicators at the oversold regions of the stochastics. There is however some pullback expectations towards the end of the Asian session going into the European and London sessions. We shall be watching the charts keenly for bullish indicator combinations to go long.
The only fundamentals expected t bring volatility is the Building permits set to be released at 1230GMT and GDT price index to be released at a tentative time-usually at 1400-1500HRs GMT. So let’s watch them and have a pipful day.