There is a lot of uncertainty in the market at the moment, especially considering the on and off-supposed meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC members with latest news being that of OPEC members planning to meet Russia to discuss the current Oil situation sometimes in May, perhaps that is when a resolution of what to do with the current prices will be reached. In my opinion I will gear towards a higher price of oil and thereby am improvement of commodity prices but it will still be a challenging balancing game for NZD. Yesterday Existing home sales from the us showed a rise to 5.33M and Crude Oil inventories declined to 2.1M barrel from last week’s 6.6M barrels and despite the news, there was a consistent decline of NZD and closed somewhere at 0.687 regions.
Now with this news, let’s see what happened on the charts:
Daily Chart Analysis
Technically speaking, there is a strong double bar reversal pattern that has been formed in the overbought region of the stochastics. There is a reduction of momentum at the moment and a rejection of price from the 0.7050 regions with price action bouncing off from the upper BB closing 72 pips down from Wednesday’s open. It’s hard to initiate a short based on these indicators since OBV is very flat and the slope of the 20 day moving average is still very positive. We shall have to wait for today’s candle stick behavior to validate our buy or take position.
There are no major economic news today from both economies other than the weekly unemployment claims expected from the US at 1230GMT where number of citizens claiming benefits is projected to rise to 265K from last week’s 253K and later on we shall watch the Monthly CB Leading index where the direction of the economy will be gauged from a composition of 10 leading indicators, economist project a rise to 0.4 from last month’s 0.1 and also the monthly Natural Gas Storage which is to rise from -3B to 6B as projected all these will be released at 1400GMT.
4HR Chart Analysis
From technicals, price declined yesterday and formed a double bar reversal pattern in the daily chart. And at the moment, the 4 HR chart is showing a price bouncing off from the 20 4HR moving average. Momentum is reducing and OBV is also moving from the overbought region of the stochastics, we shall have to wait and if price break through the 20 4HR moving average then we shall initiate a short and the reverse will be through if it bounced off from the level.
15Min Chart Analysis
From the charts, price declined from yesterday session and it was somewhat ranging in the London and New York session till when the overlap was done and price continued with the downtrend with small swings to say the least. There is no clear signals and direction in this lower time frame with price action moving sideways along the 100 Fibonacci level. If there is a retracement, then price might move to 61.8 level or even from this 100 level, depending on where the signal combination occurs at. Let’s wait and see where the perfect indicator combination will occur when the London Session begins to initiate a short or buy especially if you will be looking to scalp.
Anyways, that’s it for today, have a pipful day