Guys, okay on Friday that is how things turned out, a disappointing no direction kind of a move with strong whipsaws striking stop losses in both directions.
Let’s look at really what happened, on a neutral point of view and if you were waiting for numbers and not analysis, then it was a straight buy and indeed if you bought then you could have gained some few pips. You see, this was the smallest job gains in the last 7 months and with a forecast of 203K, job gains was capped by 160K creating doubts on whether the USD will be strengthening in the coming few months, even though this dropped unemployment rate stayed steady at 5.0% far much than anticipated, with economist waiting for an eased 4.9% in the employment sector. Perhaps the only bright spot in this release was with the Average Hourly earnings of employees, it turned out and increased to 2.5% with the average working hours in the retail sector rising by 6 minutes and averaging a 34.5hours and thereby a 2% yearly gain in wages when compounded. Now let’s see what happened on our charts:
Daily Chart Analysis
If anything, this chart tells us we should continue with our bearish momentum and this is so. From a technical point of view, there is reducing momentum with both OBV and Stochastics rallying from the overbought region and price action breaking and closing below all the support barriers-that is, the 20 day moving average, both support trend lines and the 5 month support line that represented very strong support area but it is now broken.
Fundamentally, economists forecast an improvement of economic conditions in China, and this is so if you want to look at how things turned out in the Asian session with their Trade Balance increasing to 298B from March’s 195B when termed in Yuan value. This was expected given that there was more lending in the past few months which stimulated growth in the export sector but the word out there is that if there are cracks and no further growth in the China, expect the Feds not to increase their Fund Rates.
4HR Chart Analysis
Well, this chart is telling us to go long and that is what I recommend and be in sync with the monthly chart. It is clear that the stochastics are swinging in from the overbought regions, candle sticks show a clear bounce off from the lower BB and there is a positive slope in the OBV, if this holds and there is a bullish momentum then we should look at how price action will behave in the now resistance zones.
15 Minutes Chart Analysis
With that gap down when the markets opened, price action consequently rallied up to close it and from there on the market has been moving sideways moving up to the 50% Fibonacci level. There is no clear activity on what is happening as OBV and the middle band of the BB remains flat. I would recommend a buy at all lows in this pair in the coming trading session as there are no major news to be released today.