Yesterday’s Feds minute minutes remained as it was, they will continue with the cautious approach and if need be, its monetary policy adjustments will have to be slow and gradual. This slow and gradual approach was based mainly on the general global economic outlook of slowing growth in contrast with the strengthening US dollar. With the April interest rates cards off the table, we are now shifting our attention to the June session where Federal governors and regional presidents are looking for a possible increase of 0.50 basis points rather than the earlier projected 1.00. With these mixed pointers, let’s look at how our chart was affected:

Daily Chart Analysis

NZDUSD Daily Chart-07.04.2016

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 20 day moving average continued to hold as a strong support and even though there was initial bear rally in the beginning of the week, the price bounced off quickly on this level. The OBV is much from the Stochastics oversold regions and its increasing volume is giving it a sharper positive gradient. If price breach the 5 months resistance level, then we are looking for a possible bullish run past the 0.70 regions.

Fundamental Analysis

There is good news, its look like commodity prices are showing a considerable improvement. With yesterday’s crude oil inventories at -4.9M from the projected 3.1M, it means there is more demand for the black gold and an indirect effect to cause demand for other commodities in which New Zealand is dependent on. Other relevant news today is the unemployment claims forecasted at 271K from 276K to be released at 1230PM GMT+3. If it remains so, it will be in tandem with what the Feds want at maintaining a near full employment with an ideal unemployment rate of 5%.

4 HR Chart Analysis

NZDUSD 4HR Chart-07.04.2016

There is one thing clear from the Chart: the market is rising in an ascending channel and the lower trend line is proving to be a strong support. Stochastics are also from the oversold region and is steady unlike the OBV. If price close above that 5 month resistance line and above February and late March highs then when in for a bull run but we shall have to watch the chart for better signals.

Fundamental Analysis

With the Feds stance and mixed market direction after yesterdays new, we shall have to wait for economic news from the US later today and tomorrow for leads on market direction. Also of note is the Consumer Credit M/M from the US to be released at 700PM GMT+3 that is expected to have a low impact but very important as it shows general mass expenditure which affect inflation.

Verdict: Bullish

15 Minutes Chart Analysis

NZDUSD 15 Min Chart-07.04.2016

Technical Analysis

The Asian session was in a bullish run and closed some 10 pips above yesterday’s high after that 50 percent correction. It is likely that the price will correct to the 62.8 level before the bullish run continues maybe at the London and New York sessions.

Fundamental Analysis

We shall watch the unemployment claims news and Consumer Credit at the New York session and check their impact on this pair.

Verdict: Buy at all Lows

One thought on “NZDUSD DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 07.04.2016”

  1. Daniel Chan - Forex.Today says:

    Thanks . Good informative fundamental and great technical analysis.

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