Hello Traders,

The biweekly GDT Price index showed a considerable improvement yesterday rising from -2.9% to 2.1%, this means one thing-the average price of the country’s main export product is improving and therefore there is an influence on the monthly GDP. Commodity pricing is crucial for any exporting country and today as the Weekly crude oil inventories is set to be released before the Feds minute, we shall be watching them closely as they have an effect on this pair.

Daily Chart Analysis

NZDUSD Daily chart-06.04.2016

Technical Analysis

There is a clear price rejection and a downward momentum shown in this chart. Since price was strongly rejected from the 0.69 regions, we are seeing a US dollar bull at the moment. The stochastics are in tandem and the price closed above the 20 day moving average yesterday with a long tail. This means that there is a developing buying pressure. As it might be noted, the 20 day moving average, being the middle band of the BB has acted as support in the past 2 months and is significant, if it is convincingly broken and the OBV continues with a negative gradient, then we shall initiate a short in the shorter time frames.

Fundamental Analysis

We shall be looking at today’s Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30PM GMT+3 which is forecasted to 3.1M from 2.3M with an increasing stock of crude oil in inventories and at 6:00PM GMT+3, we shall wait to analyze all the tidbits from the Feds Minutes held last month.

Verdict: Neutral

4 HR Chart Analysis

NZDUSD 4HR chart-06.04.2016

Technical Analysis

This time frame is clearly showing that the pair is in an ascending channel and from yesterday, the price bounced off from the lower trend line of the channel-which is a strong support developed over the past two weeks. The Stochatics is also from the oversold regions and is rising. BB is also in sync with Stochastics and price action is rising from the lower band and we shall wait and see, if price close breach above the 9 month resistance line, then we initiate a buy.

Fundamental Analysis

We shall be looking for clues of the Feds long term monetary policy action from today’s Feds minutes. If it shows that inflation and employment is not good enough then we shall be selling the dollar and boosting the NZD bulls. Let’s also wait for Crude Oil Inventories today as they influence all the major commodity countries  inclusive of the kiwi.

Verdict: Buy

15 Minutes Chart Analysis

NZDUSD 15 Min chart-06.04.2016

Technical Analysis

NZD has been on a bullish run from yesterday’s London session and is not showing any sign of slowdown. However, with the formation of that two bar reversal at the 200 day moving average which is our moving resistance we shall be waiting for price to close above it and a favorable indicator combination to initiate a buy.

Fundamental Analysis

Crude oil inventories and Feds minutes are important economic news today and we shall be watching them closely.

Verdict: buy

3 thoughts on “NZDUSD DAILY ANALYSIS FOR 06.04.2016”

  1. kenny chung says:

    REALLY good article , clear and precise analysis – good work ! just ONE thing that will make this (and all other forex.today) articles even better – please make the charts ‘clickable’ so we can see that charts properly. On phone/tablet it is impossible to read!

    many thanks – look forward to see more articles

  2. Dalmas Ngetich - FOREX.TODAY says:

    Hi Kenny,
    thanks for your kind words.
    We are working on that and in future articles, we shall have clickable charts for easy viewing.

  3. Daniel Chan - Forex.Today says:

    Thank you for great work. detail analysis.

Leave a Reply