Hello Traders,

Earlier today before the Asian session, New
Zealand Trade Balance was released and we saw a trade surplus of $292M in April
and a reduced Trade Deficit of $3.7B compared to March $3.8B. This was mostly due
to the weakened NZD and increased import volumes-mostly of consumption goods,
printed at $4.0B. What was discouraging was the value of Capital goods which
was down 10% to $101M.

With this news let’s see what happened on the

Chart Analysis

After NZD Trade balance was released we saw a jump
to yesterday’s high which was at 0.6765 regions and concluded a 100% price
retracement as price moved from 0.6704 lows which represented the 161.8
Fibonacci level when drawn from Monday’s HiLo. Price action is still oscillating
in a tight 120 pip range when drawn from that strong resistance point at 0.685
zone to the lowest point recorded in this descending range. What is noted also
is the behavior of the candle stick as they move horizontally away from the
lower BB showing that price action momentum is somehow reduced and price could
break upwards especially if both OBV and Stochastics are pulled in to the

Today there are no major fundamentals expect the
Crude Oil inventories which is projected at -1.7M from last week’s 1.3M, news
which will coincide with BOC overnight rate statement which is expected to
remain unchanged at 0.5%. All this will be released at 1400GMT

4 HR Chart Analysis

As observed price action reversed from the 0.67
area, which formed our support in this time frame and coincided well with the
stochastics and OBV which formed a strong buy signal in this area. We shall
continue to initiate buy trades-at 06730-0.6760 levels with our potential take
profit being the resistance zone at 0.6820.

15 min Chart Analysis

Asian session price action continued to oscillate
between 0.6735-0.6765 levels. What is of note is that today’s high is a
confluence zone-it’s the 61.8 Fibonacci level of Monday’s HiLo and 100
Fibonacci Level for yesterday’s HiLo. If there is a break above this region
then look to buy, if it doesn’t, initiate sell trades only when warranted by
good indicator combination.

Probable buy trades-Buy limit at 0.6735,
SL-0.6705, TP-0.6785

Probable Sell Trade- Sell Limit at 0.6780, SL-0.6810,

Have a pip ful day

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