It is yet another week where we expect this pair will continue with its follow through with its bullish run, although the markets opened with small gap down, of about 8 pips- it gave us a tale tale sign that there was somewhat a selling pressure over the weekend but right now the gap has been closed and from last Friday’s High-low, the 161.8 Fibonacci level has been taken down when price hit the 0.702 price in the Asia Level. Now with these technicals what are we to anticipate this week, well we have the RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday then on Wednesday we have the New Zealand Unemployment rate and then to cap the week, the NFP will be released from the US. Those in my opinion will be the most important news that might influence this pair, now let’s look at the charts:
Daily Chart Analysis
Technically speaking, we are seeing that this rally opened with a gap down which was quickly closed and somehow we don’t see any convincing tail on this candle stick, what we are seeing however is the development of selling pressure as shown by that long upper wick. This is expected the reason that this is the beginning of a new month and the first trading month too after that strong bullish run last week which is very clear on the weekly chart, we shall look sell this pair until the correct indicator reversal signal develop on the 4 HR chart of this pair. If anything, this pair might retrace to the minor double tops around 0.69 regions before it reverses at the course of the week.
Today’s economic news will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI set to be released at 1400 GMT with forecast at 51.6 from last month’s 51.8, also check out the ISM Manufacturing prices which will be released at the same time forecasted at 51.0 from last month’s 51.5. King Mario will be speaking today so watch out that too as he might mention something that might affect the Euro and which might consequently cause moves in this pair.
4HR Chart Analysis
There is something clear on this pair, a double reversal bar with the stochastics reversing deep in the overbought region and the OBV is developing a negative slope meaning that volumes are reducing and thereby momentum; this means one thing-Sell. This is an advised decision from the fact that there is no rally especially if observed from higher time frames as weekly charts that don’t have a clear low and at the moment, there was a rally to the 0.702 regions without a clear lower wick on the weekly chart. So, let’s be selling this pair at the momentarily until a clear buy signal is formed on this chart or on the 1 hour chart.
15 Min chart Analysis
The Asian session was clearly bullish and right after the 161.8 Fibonacci level was hit, a double bar reversal signal was formed and more so, that bearish candle stick which was formed outside the upper BB supported the sell move. At the moment, price is bouncing off the Friday’s high which is our 100 Fibonacci level. My advice is this; it will be wiser to sell at all highs indicated by when both the OBV and Stochastics are in the overbought regions.
Otherwise have a pip ful day.