We saw risk off sentiment dominate the market yesterday and Nikkei moving down from the top of the range on the daily chart. This resulted in Yen strength as money left stocks and went into Japanese bank accounts. Taking a look at the Nikkei today further risk off sentiment and Yen strength is possible. Yesterday’s risk sentiment did not continue during Asia. We have also seen comments out of BOJ saying that they maintain their policy to expand stimulus though only to protect the economy from external shocks. There was no tier 2 or 3 news out of Japan during Asia. Keep an eye on US data, specifically the FOMC meeting minutes and line up of Fed speakers for rhetoric that supports a rate hike in December. Yen will weaken off a strong USDollar though this weakness may be negated if the Nikkei is in a bearish rally.

Note:
a. Please read Kate’s post on Forex Major Currencies Outlook everyday so you are up to date with the latest news. You can follow Kate here
b. Please be aware of risk events for the day by using the Forex.Today calendar
c. Watch Wayne’s webinar daily at 13:30 SAST or catch the recording on the Forex.Today Youtube Channel

Nikkei Daily

Price came off MR1 and is currently at MR3. I identify this as the top of the range and observe the daily stochastic as overbought and having crossed signaling that we could see further bearishness in the near term.

Nikkei H4

Price moved up during Asia though found resistance below WR1 in the pink zone. Stochastic is moving down towards oversold signaling further bearishness in the near term.

Nikkei H1

Price fell yesterday making a lower low, moved up and then was sold a the 61.8% Fib. Subsequently, price has moved up from DM2 and is moving back up to resistance. Keep an eye on the chart for a confirmed move to the upside or downside while taking note that we are currently making lower highs and lower lows. Stochastic is also moving down signaling further bearishness in the near term.

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Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld

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