Fundamental Analysis

USD
-Throughout the previous week we received mix reactions from the greenback starting of with negative CB Consumer confidence Click to View fellowed by a positive Crude Oil Inventories reading which gave the dollar a positive push , We also had Core Durable Goods Orders which came in as expected we also had the Advanced GDP report on Friday which came in better than expected increasing the chance of a rate for a rate hike but later on Friday we also had the FBI announcing that they will be reopening the e-mail saga investigation which immediately reflected in the markets coursing a decrees in risk epithet and increases in Safe Haven currencies . This week we had a improvement in the Dallas Fed PCE which is an indication of the change in the inflation rate, Ahead of this week we have the ADP employment growth which will give traders a slight idea of what to expect for the coming NFP for more infomation Click to View we also have the FOMC Statement from the Feds this is expected to bring volatility to the us market any Dovish comments my cause the dollar to weaken but hawkish comments could cause a slight dollar strengthen. On Friday we have the Non-farm Payrolls report coming out which is expected to come in 175k with the previous report coming in at a 156k this will be closely watched by traders a less than expected reading will result in rate hike expectation decrease

Euro
-Throughout the previous week the Euro imaged stronger in comparison to the dollar and its counterparts the were positive data released out of Europe, We had the French PMI as well as the German IFO Business Climate which immensely contributed to the strong Eur. This week we had CPI data report that came in exactly as expected at a 0.5% with a previous of 0.4% followed by the Advanced GDP report which also came in as expected at a 0.3% with a previous reading of 0.3% which indicates no improvement in the quarterly reading which also had less of an impact in the market,For the remainder of the week Traders will closely be watching the Manufacturing PMI report a great deviation in the reading could lead to possible scalp trades, the German Manufacturing PMI and the German Unemployment Change will also be closely observed if reading come out to be positive we will see the Eur gaining ground against its counter parts if a negative reading is released a much side ways market will be seen
EURUSD Sentiment(COT Report)
-The COT report shows that most of the non-commercial traders are currently long on the pair we also see a decrease in the Net Noncommercial position

GBP
– Throughout the previous week the Pound seemed to be moving in a sideways market currently moving between a low of 1.232982 and 1.207455 this is simply caused by the mixed report released out of Britain after the BoE Gov Carney Spoke the pound weakened, We also had the GDP third quoter growth which came in better than expected growth at an actual of 0.5% and a forecast of 0.3% . This week a close look on the Services PMI a positive reading may see the pound holding at support it will be followed by the BoE Inflation Report a change in the report is not expected but if a rate or vote cut is announced the pound will weaken
GBPUSD Sentiment(COT Report)
-The COT report shows that most of the non-commercial traders are currently Short on the pair we also see a increase in the Net Noncommercial position

CAD
-Last week the Canadian Dollar imaged to be the weakest compared to its counter parts this was caused by the down graded inflation and down graded growth forecast followed by the negative oil readings that came out off the us last week. This week traders will closely be looking at the GDP report which is expected forecast of 0.2% and a previous of 0.5% a negative reading will lead to a weaker Canadian dollar
USDCAD Sentiment(COT Report)
-The COT report shows that most of the non-commercial traders are currently Short on the pair we also see a decrease in the Net Noncommercial position

AUD
-Throughout last week the Aussie dollar appeared strong with the raise in Comex Copper future reported the was also a positive CPI data report which came out better than expected in the month of October at 0.7%.This week a close look will be on the China PMI report which could affect the Aussie dollar because of its heavy reliance on chines economy and because China is the second largest economy the report could also indicate a risk tone of the over all market
AUDUSD Sentiment(COT Report)
-The COT report shows that most of the non-commercial traders are currently Long on the pair we also see a increase in the Net Noncommercial position

JPY
-Throughout last week the Yuan regained strength against the greenback, The were positive data out of japan the were a positive House Hold spending coming in better than expected with a actual of 2.8% The were also positive CPI data release out of Tokyo which came in at a better than expected actual of -0.4% whiles the National CPI data came out exactly as it was expected at an actual of -0.5% , we also had a positive Job/applications ratio coming in at an actual of 1.38 these news reports triggered a sharp bearish movement for the USDJPY. This week a close eye will be kept on the BoJ Press Conference a close look on inflation and offers insights into future monetary policy decisions.
USDJPY Sentiment(COT Report)
-The COT report shows that most of the non-commercial traders are currently Long on the pair we also see a increase in the Net Noncommercial position

NZD
-Throughout last week the Kiwi appeared to be weaker against the greenback and moving in a sideways market in comparison to its counter parts we had negative Trade Balance data release out of New Zealand followed at a actual of -3,400M we also had Labour Day holiday in New Zealand which slowed kiwi pair .This week will have a close look on Inflation Expectations for quoter 3 a higher than expected reading should strengthen the kiwi,the Employment Change will also be observed which had an expected forecast of 0.6% the GlobalDairyTrade Price Index will also be observed as it had a previous reading of 1.4% a higher reading could indicate a strong kiwi
NZDUSD Sentiment(COT Report)
-The COT report shows that most of the non-commercial traders are currently Short on the pair we also see a decrease in the Net Noncommercial position

Major Currency Outlook

2 thoughts on “Major currencies outlook 01 November2016”

    1. soon really looking forward to it ill PM you today so that we can talk about it

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