Capture

There is a 4 hour head and shoulders pattern forming on the GBPUSD before the London open tonight. The GBPUSD has failed to make a higher high than the most recent high which was stopped by the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bearish move on the pair.

GBPUSDH4

In the Daily View, you can see yesterday formed a shooting star on the GBPUSD which generally is a reversal signal. You can see as well that the previous lows to the left are helping provide resistance.

GBPUSDDaily

Looking at the monthly pivots, MR1 at 1.4441 has held as resistance for the GBPUSD.

GBPUSDH4 MR1

An update on this trade, early into New York, there is now the first signs of a 4 hour lower high on the right shoulder of this head and shoulders pattern, which is a 78.6 Fibonacci lower high pullback. This lower high meets the first criteria of a 4 hour reversal pattern, we now will need these lows to break.

4H Reversal

Kind regards,

Tyler Lund

U.S. DOLLAR ANALYST, FOREX.TODAY

8 thoughts on “GBPUSD LONDON OUTLOOK MARCH 30”

  1. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

    Thanks Tyler – overnight during the Asian session bearish moves have continued with H4 stoc moving towards oversold. We were so close to the top of the range yesterday with the weekly and monthly bull target being at the top of the range 1.45. At the time of writing this the stochastic is at 50% pointing down. We are at DS1 with bear daily target being DM1/ DS2 which will coincide with the 4 hourly 21 – if I was a bull that’s where I would look to buy aiming to head to bull weekly and monthly target. Note that the daily stoch is at 50% and pointing up. We would need some very positive fundamental data to encourage more bulls to enter the market and beat the bears at the 1.44 resistance. Perhaps the data being released this morning will do it. Great news scalp either way.

    1. Tyler Lund says:

      Thanks Ryan.

  2. Ryan Gandalf van Jaarsveld says:

    Just to add to my previous reply – DS2 coincides with 1.43 and 38.2 fib of 1.40640 low and 1.44 high on H4… A quick question for you Tyler – when you draw your fib I notice you draw it from the candle body and not the top of the wick – do you always draw your fibs like this – what does the majority of people do? I guess an approach is to look at both and take note of any significant moves at those zones?

    1. Tyler Lund says:

      Hi Ryan,
      I am not sure which fib study you were looking at of mine, but I try to always draw from the wick, which for me is the highest high… thanks for your notes on the analysis …

  3. Jim Reddihough says:

    Great analysis. I was looking for retracement up to 1.4370ish and sell at London open but it’s not happened. Getting a bit too close to 4h 21 as Ryan says now.

  4. Tyler Lund says:

    Yeah, Ryan has a good point about the 4 Hour 21, this may still fall in New York… we will see…this is a Swing for me… so I am giving it enough room to slowly correct down.

  5. Rick D says:

    nice… definitely will be an interesting pair next couple of months!!

  6. Guy Pelletier says:

    NICE WORK !

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