The GBP/USD has increased significantly in the last three days, but the upward momentum was paused by a very strong dynamic resistance, the rate has decreased today even if the US dollar index has slipped lower in the last hours. Note that the current retreat could be only temporary and the rate could jump higher again and could climb above the yesterday’s high from 1.3272 level, the perspective remains somehow bullish on the short term because the rate has started to make higher lows, the sentiment could change again if the rate will have enough energy to resume the rebound.
The Cable wasn’t inspired by the UK CBI Realized Sales, which has increased from -14 to 9 points, have come in better than the -5 points estimate, unfortunately the Cable has lost ground versus the other major currencies, maybe the short retreat is natural after the impressive bullish run, remains to see what will happen in the afternoon and how the rate will react after the United States economic data will be sent to the public, the greenback is waiting for a bullish spark to be able to climb higher on the short term.
The US is to release the Core Durable Goods Orders, which could increase by 0.4% in July, could increase sharply versus the 0.4% drop from June, while the DurableGoods Orders could increase by 3.4% in the last month, more versus the 3.9% drop from June. Moreover the Unemployment Claims may increase a little from 262K to 265K in the last week, I don’t think that the minor increase will harm the USD. The United States Flash Services PMI could climb from 51.4 to 51.9 points , signaling that the services sector continues the expansion.

GBPUSDD-1

The rate has resumed the last week rebound and has reached new highs, the upward movement was stopped again by the sliding parallel line (descending dotted line), this dynamic line represents a very strong resistance, you can see that has rejected the price several times in the past. The upward momentum will resume only if the price will jump and stabilize above the sliding parallel line, you can see that the rate has managed to jump again inside the ascending pitchfork’s body after has found support at the 150% Fibonacci line (minor ascending dotted line). The bias is bullish as long as the rate is located above the lower median line of the short ascending pitchfork, but the confirmation will come if the rate will break above the sliding line and will retest the dynamic resistance.

GBPUSDH-1

You can see on the H4 chart that the rate has slipped below the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork, could drop deeper if will stabilize below this minor support, we’ll have a selling opportunity if the rate will test and retest the confluence area formed at the intersection of the sliding parallel line with the lower median line of the ascending pitchfork.

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Olimpiu Tuns

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