Pound has been incredibly strong and maybe will continue until 3 August though we do have some inflation data out on Tuesday and Thursday so we will have to see what’s happening with inflation vs. consumer spending. Carney is looking for positive data to hike and we know that UK inflation is a result of a low exchange rate – exchange rate has been pretty good lately – especially compared to this time last year, maybe that brings inflation down slightly and then on Thursday we see core retail sales and retail sales on trend (low).

In the meantime, this analysis is based on three charts – 10Y Gilts at support, US10Y at support and GBPJPY at resistance. If you are a bear you are paying attention and looking for opportunities to short. If the 10Y and Gilts move higher then a sell on GBPJPY would be a good trade. Price moves up at support and down at resistance. Worth a shot if we get a setup – stop at break even, hero or zero. If you are a bull then WPP is the buy zone.

GBPJPY H1

Top or range/ triple top at WM3 with a target of WM1/ bottom of range. Buy zone at WPP with target of WR2. Note, I have just drawn a direct line to the targets - of course price action would not go straight down or straight up so you would pay attention to support at WPP and lower highs with a break of support at WPP and pullback if selling. If buying then just pay attention to support at WPP with a break of resistance at WM3 and a pullback.

US10Y H1

We fib the higher high. Pull back to 61.8% making a higher low with a target of 138.2%. Caveat: price has come down off the bearish 61.8% so if the higher low collapses at the 61.8% and price moves lower to the 78.6% then we expect some ranging due to the 78.6% predicting a move back to the previous high. For now though technical analysis tells us that a higher high forms a higher low followed by a higher high.

10Y Gilts

Bottom of range. Sitting at the 61.8% fib on Daily with a double bottom on H4.

One thought on “GBPJPY tripple top WM3 with Gilts and 10Y at support”

  1. frank says:

    nice plan.im also looking to sell at wm3

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