This pair as we all experienced last week can kiss you, and then quickly turn around, and kick you. I still believe that if it had pulled all the way back to the Monthly M2 like I originally anticipated, it wouldn’t have prompted the UK’s “Negative Nellies” both BoE & Geo Politically into being so wishy washy about Brexit, and their need to hike. 90% of the numbers that came out last week supported an inflationary need to raise rates at least once, and Carney who I have written down just days earlier as being pro hike, did an about face, and pretended to be the new Draghi of the BoE. “Well..no, maybe, yea? Well…no..maybe? Yea??..well no. If I needed fertilizer, I’d head on down to the landscaping supply store.
These guys are starting to sound a lot like Charlie Browns teacher..wah..wah..wah..wo..wah..wah.wo.wah. They’re all playing king of the ditch, while waiting to see what happens in the U.S.A first. I read a half a dozen statements that reflect that exact train of thought last week.
Regardless, I’m still Bullish this pair, and in spite of the truck loads of oxymoron manure they keep dumping on us, the fundamentals of both these currencies support at the very least, a bullish trend until a double top at the last Daily high. 152.50
However, us Bulls need to keep a keen eye on what the Bears might do momentarily, as this is their 61.8 retracement after the Bearish rally off of that last top. I’ll feel much more comfortable waiting for the 4hr stoch to be oversold at the last brutal resistance, that should now be support. 149.20I If this set up waivers, and breaks down, then it may take the pair right down to my original bounce area, of 147.00 where I will definitely pull my Bullish trigger.
Stay safe, use your stops (especially on this pair) and happy pip hunting!!