The USD continues to lose ground and looks bearish medium term… the Yen and euro both continue to be gaining on it… To me this means a good buying op is coming for the USD. Japan and Europe are on easing to at best neutral monetary policies while the USA continues its messy attempt at tightening. Recently the shitty jobs data from the USD has killed any tightening anytime soon.
It takes two to tango however – for the USD to look appealing again it can either get cheaper (90 – 89.5ish on the $index the 50% fib being 89.5). Or the other side of the coin is some easing by the central banks of europe or japan would make the USD more appealing.
Quiet simply I am looking to catch dollar strength in the second half of the year.
How I am trading it –
EURO – for the short term I am cautiously long euro as it slowly climbs up from prices at the bottom of the channel marked. It is worth noting that this could drop like a ton of bricks and I think it will long run but to me itll hit the red resistance zone marked first… – it is a fib and selling has been strong from previous tries BELOW it.
YEN – I am looking at (haven’t started) shorting the Yen as a solid bottom is forming but not yet formed. Im looking to buy and hold USD/JPY.
USD – Im selling USD short run mostly against the AUD but looking to buy at 90 – 89.5. Im looking at selling the YEN and EURO against it in future
EUR/JPY – I am watching this 1 closely as it will show which one to be long and possibly a defensive spread if things don’t go great