The dollar paused from its climb as fresh updates from North Korea hit the newswires. Officials said that the latest provocations from the US are tantamount to declaring war on Pyongyang and that they will shoot down US bombers even if they’re not in the North Korean airspace. There are no major reports today but speeches from Evans and Kashkari haven’t been all that hawkish.


The euro also took a breather from its rallies after the German elections generated a victory for Merkel but this was short of a majority. This means that a coalition could be struck among the parties but that negotiations could leave political uncertainty in play for a while. The German Ifo business climate index fell from 115.9 to 115.2 instead of rising to the estimated 116.00 figure. German import prices data is due next.


The pound moved mostly sideways at the start of the week as traders are trying to assess how the meeting between Tusk and May might go. The UK PM’s speech didn’t do enough to rally the bulls last week so traders are doubtful that the transition deal could pass. There are no major reports due from the UK today so Brexit could be the main driver of price action.


The franc got a bid in the latter half of the day as several market uncertainties came into play. For one, there’s the political uncertainty in the euro zone and New Zealand, then there’s the resurfacing geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea. There were no reports out of Swizterland on Monday and none are due today so market sentiment and currency-specific action could stay in play.


The yen got a boost from a pickup in risk aversion in the Asian region and reacted somewhat positively to news of a snap election in Japan. PM Abe is seeking fresh mandate to address the concerns regarding North Korea, so while this could mean a bit of uncertainty in the near term, it could also lead to affirmation for the government’s stance. BOJ minutes are due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies appear to be on shaky footing again now that North Korean jitters are returning. However, CAD has been able to hold steady on speculations that the OPEC might extend its output deal beyond March 2018 to keep crude oil prices stable. New Zealand has its trade balance and ANZ business confidence index due next but traders seem to be more focused on political developments.

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