The US dollar had a mixed performance once more, as it gave up ground to most of its forex peers but advanced to the euro and the franc. There have been no major reports out of the US yesterday, leaving the dollar to act mostly as a counter currency. For today, the FOMC minutes are up for release and might contain some upbeat remarks from Fed officials. However, traders are likely to take this in light of the recent NFP disappointment, possibly brushing off strong hints about a liftoff later this year.
The euro was still in a weak spot yesterday, particularly against commodity currencies. There have been no major reports out of the euro zone, as traders seem to be bracing themselves for more dovishness in the ECB meeting minutes to be released today. Keep in mind that it was during the September meeting when Draghi admitted that they’re open to further easing if inflation falls further, and support from his other policymakers could weigh on the euro.
The pound was able to stage a decent rebound in yesterday’s trading sessions, thanks to an upbeat UK manufacturing production figure. The report showed a 0.5% increase versus the projected 0.4% rise, following a positive revision in the previous reading. Industrial production was also better than expected with a 1.0% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. The BOE rate statement and MPC meeting minutes are due today, with reassuring remarks likely to extend the pound’s rallies.
The franc gave up ground to the dollar, even though the Swiss foreign currency reserves didn’t confirm any large intervention moves by the SNB. Traders seem to be trading the Swissy carefully ahead of the ECB meeting minutes release, as dovish remarks could lead the Swiss central bank to ease as well. The Swiss jobless rate is also due today and a climb from 3.3% to 3.4% is eyed.
The yen was off to a weak start as traders anticipated dovish remarks from the BOJ, but the safe-haven currency was able to regain ground during the latter sessions. The central bank kept monetary policy unchanged as expected, acknowledging the recent slump but maintaining its outlook that the economy would continue to recover moderately. Earlier today, the core machinery orders report printed a surprise 5.7% slide versus the projected 3.3% increase.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls carried on with their rallies, despite weaker than expected building permits data from Canada and an increase in oil stockpiles in the US. The latest dairy auction in NZ yielded a 9.9% gain in prices, providing support for the Kiwi throughout the day. Canadian housing starts data is due today, although the return of Chinese traders from their holiday could also spur volatility among higher-yielders today.