The US dollar was stuck in its ranges for the most part of the day as banks were closed in observance of Columbus Day. Dovish FOMC member Kashkari has a speech lined up today and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is due. Other than that, US markets could continue to take their cue from market sentiment and earnings reports.


The shared currency had a mixed run but it did take a few hits on political uncertainty in Spain and Germany. Catalonia’s bid for independence is still being challenged but has not kept investors from worrying that other European cities might follow its lead. Meanwhile, Merkel’s political party continues to seek a coalition with the Greens but there has been no official word yet. Data turned out better than expected as German industrial production jumped 2.6% versus the estimated 0.9% uptick while the region’s Sentix Investor Confidence index landed at 29.7 versus 28.6. French and Italian industrial production, along with the German trade balance, are due next.


The pound was able to score some wins when PM May assured that a two-year transition period will be in play after Brexit. She did float the idea of a ‘no deal’ scenario and said that the ball is in the EU’s court. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed after the earlier 0.5% gain. Industrial production is projected to post another 0.2% uptick.


The franc was weaker against most of its peers as there were no reports from the Swiss economy yesterday. The Swiss jobless rate is up for release today and no change from the earlier 3.2% figure are eyed. This could leave the franc sensitive to the usual slew of currency-specific reports and market sentiment.


The yen was stuck in consolidation at the start of the week on the lack of major market catalysts. Yen pairs appear to be breaking higher in today’s Asian session, though, even as Japan’s current account balance came in better than expected at a surplus of 2.27 trillion JPY versus the estimated drop to 1.98 trillion JPY. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due next and a rise from 49.7 to 49.9 is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were slightly weaker for the day as China printed a downbeat Caixin services PMI of 50.6 versus the earlier 52.7 and estimated 53.1 figures. OPEC officials expressed more support for an extension of the output deal but the positively-correlated Loonie failed to benefit from the pickup in oil prices. The Kiwi remains on the back foot as the political uncertainty lingers in parliament. Canada has its housing starts and building permits coming up, along with a speech by BOC policymaker Wilkins.

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