The US dollar had a volatile run during the NFP release as the actual figure showed a surprise 33K drop versus the estimated 88K gain. The previous reading featured an upgrade from 156K to 182K so traders are holding out for a positive revision in the September numbers later on. The upside surprise in average hourly earnings at 0.5% versus 0.3% also kept the US currency supported. US banks are closed in observance of Columbus Day today so there are no major reports lined up.
The euro had a mixed run as it was propped up by positive fundamentals but the political uncertainty in Spain is also keeping a lid on its gains. Medium-tier reports were mostly stronger than expected as German factory orders surged 3.6% versus the estimated 0.7% uptick while the French trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit of 4.5 billion EUR. German industrial production data is due today and a 0.9% gain is eyed after the earlier flat reading while the euro zone Sentix investor confidence index could drop from 28.2 to 26.8.
The pound was still in a weak spot as Brexit concerns overshadowed upside data surprises earlier on. UK Halifax HPI showed a 0.8% gain instead of staying flat but the focus was on the government’s negotiating stance and how PM May appears to be losing support even within the Conservative Party. There are no major reports due from the UK today so the focus could be on Brexit updates.
The franc was able to rake in some gains against most of its rivals, except against the US dollar. SNB foreign currency reserves increased from 717 billion CHF to 724 billion CHF, which wasn’t enough to convince market watchers that the central bank is intervening in the forex market. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.
The yen was able to rally across the board on downbeat US NFP results and a bit of risk aversion. Japanese average cash earnings came in stronger than expected with a 0.9% gain versus the estimated 0.5% increase. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be tight and market sentiment could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie continued to chalk up more losses on another disappointing piece of data. Employment rose 10K versus the estimated 13.9K increase and the earlier 22.2K gain, but the jobless rate held steady at 6.2% instead of rising to 6.3%. The Ivey PMI also beat expectations with a rise from 56.3 to 59.3 versus the estimated dip to 56.0. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today and the only major report that might push comdolls around is the Chinese Caixin services PMI, which could advance from 52.7 to 53.1.