Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 29, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to rake in gains versus most of its counterparts on strong data and Powell’s confirmation as next Fed head. The US goods trade deficit widened but the Richmond manufacturing index and CB consumer confidence index both beat expectations. Today has the preliminary GDP due and an upgrade from 3.0% to 3.3% is eyed. Traders are also keeping their hopes up for progress on Senate’s tax reform bill vote.

EUR

The euro dipped against some of its peers as Germany’s GfK consumer climate index failed to impress. However, the German import prices report noted a stronger than expected 0.6% gain that could be positive for overall inflation. Today has the German preliminary CPI and French preliminary GDP, along with the Spanish flash CPI.

GBP

The pound had one of its more volatile days as rumors swirled that the UK and EU already reached a deal on the Brexit bill. Some government officials denied this but bulls still appear hopeful that progress could be made before the next set of official meetings. The BOE bank stress test results have also been mostly positive but wary of Brexit risks. Today has net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals due.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index on tap. Stronger than expected reports could continue to give the franc support.

JPY

The yen weakened against some of its counterparts on news of another ICBM test from North Korea that landed off the coast of Japan. Japanese retail sales also fell short of estimates as it posted a 0.2% drop instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from Japan today as traders stay on edge on North Korea tensions.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot as the API reported a small build in stockpiles while the BOC seemed to ease off its tightening bias. The OPEC meetings are starting today and traders are on the lookout for clues on how the output deal extension might go and if non-OPEC countries like Russia might join in. EIA crude oil inventories data is due next and a small build is also eyed.

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