The US dollar was off to a slow start in the week but soon regained ground as risk aversion set in. US equities were able to recover from their Friday slump, adding further support for the US currency. Data was weaker than expected, as the Empire State manufacturing index rose from -11.4 to -10.7 only, short of the projected -5.3 figure. US CPI readings are due today, with both the headline and core figures slated to post 0.2% upticks. Also due are reports on industrial production and capacity utilization.
The euro broke to fresh lows against the US dollar in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris. Policymakers have said that it’s too early to quantify the losses and speculate if it will impact monetary policy. Data from the euro zone was stronger than expected though, with the headline CPI revised from 0.0% to 0.1% and the core CPI upgraded from 1.0% to 1.1%. German ZEW data is due today and a rise from 1.9 to 6.7 is eyed.
The pound managed to put up a strong fight against its forex peers, as traders appear to have positive expectations ahead of the UK CPI release. Analysts expect to see another 0.1% decline in headline CPI and a steady core CPI at 1.0%, with stronger than expected data likely to renew calls for BOE tightening and give the pound a boost.
The franc followed in the euro’s footsteps since there were no reports out of the Swiss economy. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that the franc could keep tracking the euro that is sliding against its peers.
The yen was unable to take advantage of the run in risk aversion as Japan’s latest GDP report showed a contraction and confirmed that the country is back in recession. There are no reports due from Japan today, which suggests that yen traders might stay hesitant to pile on their long positions.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were tossed around by risk sentiment, with the Loonie managing a bit of recovery during the late US session on speculations of lower oil output due to the US airstrikes in ISIS-controlled oil fields near Syria. Data from Canada was actually weaker than expected, with manufacturing sales slumping 1.5% and foreign securities purchases also posting a decline. RBA minutes and New Zealand quarterly inflation expectations data are up next.