The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction while the elections were going on, only to tumble sharply when Trump started gaining the lead in electoral votes. US futures are deep in the red at this point, as a Trump win could lead markets to gap lower in the US session.


The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but is still lower against the rest of its peers, as economic data from the region was mostly weaker than expected. German industrial production sank 1.8% versus the projected 0.6% drop while both Germany and France printed subpar trade balance readings. Only the EU economic forecasts are due from the euro zone today.


The pound resumed its slide against its peers upon seeing downbeat industrial production data. The report printed a 0.4% slump versus the estimated 0.1% uptick while manufacturing production was up 0.6%. The UK Supreme Court accepted the government’s appeal against requiring parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, which revives the possibility of having the Brexit negotiations start in the first quarter of next year. The Supreme Court will convene from December 5-8 and announce their decision early next year.


The franc is taking advantage of the risk-off flows so far, as polls are showing that Trump is holding on to his lead against Hillary Clinton. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected and there are no reports due from Switzerland today, keeping risk sentiment in play. Bear in mind, though, that SNB officials have warned that they could intervene in the market if necessary.


The yen is also benefitting from the flight to safety spurred by the early results in the US elections. Medium-tier data from Japan was mixed but traders appear to be shrugging it off and paying closer attention to the bloodbath in the financial markets. Still, a come-from-behind victory by Clinton could force the yen to return its recent gains.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls are able to benefit from dollar weakness but are taking huge hits against lower-yielding currencies due to the rise in risk aversion. Chinese CPI and PPI numbers are up for release but the attention seems to be mostly on the US elections. The RBNZ is set to announce its policy decision and potential 0.25% rate cut in the late US session.

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