The US dollar took a hit on Friday when the NFP report printed a lower than expected 161K gain versus the estimated 174K increase. The jobless rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% as expected while average hourly earnings posted a 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. However, the Greenback was off to a strong start in the week after FBI director Comey said that they found no evidence of wrongdoing in their investigation of Clinton’s private email server. Only medium-tier reports are due today and election-related updates could have a bigger impact on USD movement.
The euro had a mixed performance on Friday then gapped down against most of its peers this week, as risk appetite picked up. Services PMI readings from the euro zone fell short of estimates last week while today has retail sales and Sentix investor confidence data on tap. Stronger than expected data could keep the shared currency afloat but market sentiment could play a greater role in price action.
The pound continued to profit off the British High Court’s ruling that the UK government would need to get parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50. There were no reports out of the UK economy on Friday and only the Halifax HPI is due today so Brexit-related headlines might still be the main driver’s of pound movement.
The franc advanced to the dollar but was weaker against the rest of its counterparts as risk appetite seemed to return. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday while today has foreign currency reserves and CPI data due. A large jump in reserves could be evidence of SNB intervention while weak CPI could keep traders on their toes for potential central bank action.
The yen was off to a weak start on Monday as the FBI’s conclusion on its investigation on Clinton’s private email server renewed hopes that the Democratic nominee could win the elections. The BOJ released its monetary policy meeting minutes over the weekend and also its average cash earnings report, which indicated a 0.2% uptick as expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly stuck in consolidation at the end of the week, awaiting clues on how market sentiment might fare. Canada’s employment data came in above consensus, as the economy added 43.9K positions in October versus the estimated 10K drop. The Ivey PMI also beat expectations with a rise from 58.4 to 59.7, reflecting stronger industry growth. However, the trade balance showed a weaker than expected 4.1 billion CAD deficit versus the projected 1.7 billion CAD shortfall and the previous 2 billion CAD deficit. ANZ jobs advertisements in Australia showed a 1% gain to show a possible turnaround in hiring.