Dollar weakness stayed in play for Friday as traders continued to worry about the repercussions of the investigation on Trump’s intelligence information leak to Russia. There were no reports released from the US then so the focus was on political headlines, and it could be the same situation today. A couple of FOMC members are set to give testimonies and any shift to a less hawkish bias could influence Fed rate hike expectations for next month.
The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains at the end of last week as medium-tier data beat expectations. German PPI rose 0.4% versus the projected 0.2% uptick while the current account surplus turned out higher than expected. There are no major reports due today but the Eurogroup meetings will take place and discussions will likely focus on Brexit.
The pound ended the previous week strong but was off to a weak start today as the UK government said over the weekend that it is not willing to pay any bill that the EU charges relating to Brexit. UK Rightmove HPI advanced from 1.1% to 1.2% while the CBI industrial order expectations index advanced from 4 to 9 instead of staying unchanged. UK Prime Minister May has a speech today.
The franc had a mixed performance as the currency reacted mostly to currency specific events. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so sentiment flows could still be the main driver of franc pairs.
The yen gave back a few of its gains towards the end of the week, likely on profit-taking activity. Earlier today, the trade balance came in weaker than expected at 0.10 trillion JPY versus the consensus at 0.25 trillion JPY. To top it off, the earlier reading was downgraded to show a smaller surplus of 0.11 trillion JPY.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Economic data from Canada came in mostly weaker than expected, with headline CPI at 0.4% versus the 0.5% consensus and the core retail sales down 0.2% instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick. Headline retail sales rose 0.7% versus the projected 0.4% gain, though. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today so volatility could pick up closer to the BOC statement and OPEC meeting.