The US dollar was unable to establish a clear direction in recent trading as the latest batch of reports fell short of estimates. Personal income posted a meager 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.4% gain while personal spending was flat instead of rising by the estimated 0.2% reading. The ISM manufacturing PMI also dropped from 57.2 to 54.8 versus the estimated 56.6 figure. For today, only the total vehicle sales report is due.
The euro gave back some of its recent gains to the commodity currencies but kept advancing to the yen. Most European banks were closed for the holiday yesterday so the move was attributed to risk-taking. For today, final manufacturing PMI readings from the top economies are due and upbeat results could drive the shared currency higher.
The pound also retreated to the comdolls but managed to hold on to its gains against the yen and dollar. UK banks were closed for the holiday yesterday so there were no major reports released while today has the manufacturing PMI on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a dip from 54.2 to 54.0 but a higher than expected read could still push the UK currency higher.
The franc also had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events. Swiss retail sales turned out much stronger than expected with a 2.1% year-over-year gain versus the estimated 0.5% uptick and the earlier 0.2% increase. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 58.6 to 58.2 is eyed.
The yen was a big loser in recent trading sessions as risk appetite picked up. There were no major reports from Japan recently and the BOJ minutes didn’t contain much surprises. The BOJ core CPI is due next and a rise from 0.1% to 0.2% is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie and Kiwi led the pack while the Loonie lagged on talks of higher oil production in Libya. However, the Aussie stalled from its climb when the Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.2 to 50.3 instead of improving to the estimated 51.4 reading. The RBA decision is due next and no changes to monetary policy is eyed while the quarterly jobs report from New Zealand is lined up for the late US session.