The US dollar managed to post feeble gains against its counterparts despite mixed data from the US economy. Headline retail sales fell 0.1% as expected while core retail sales showed a 0.1% dip instead of the estimated 0.2% decline. Headline PPI indicated a 0.2% drop as expected while the core PPI stayed flat instead of showing the projected 0.1% increase. For today, the FOMC statement could spur a lot of volatility since there will be a press conference after the release of the updated forecasts and dot plot of rate expectations.

The euro had a mixed performance as it consolidated to the dollar, lost ground to the yen, and advanced against the pound and comdolls. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday and there are no top-tier catalysts due today.

The pound sold off against its peers despite the lack of catalysts from the UK. Jobs data is up for release today and a 8.8K drop in claimants is eyed, possibly enough to keep the jobless rate unchanged at 5.1%. Traders are also set to pay close attention to the average earnings index, which might improve from 1.9% to 2.0%, for signs of wage growth.

The franc was also stuck mostly in consolidation since there were no major reports out of Switzerland. Its economic schedule is still empty for today which means that the franc could simply take its cue from sentiment.

The yen raked in gains against most of its counterparts when the BOJ refrained from easing policy again. Data from Japan also came in somewhat better than expected, as the industrial production figure was maintained at 3.7% while tertiary industry activity grew 1.5%. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were unable to make much headway as commodity prices weakened again. In New Zealand, the Global Dairy Trade auction showed a 2.9% drop in prices following the previous 1.4% gain. Its current account balance also showed the huge impact of falling dairy prices on the deficit. Canadian manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases data are due next, along with New Zealand’s quarterly GDP towards the end of the US session.

One thought on “Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 16, 2016)”

  1. Tyler Lund says:

    Very nice analysis Kate.

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