The US dollar raked in another round of gains when the ADP non-farm employment change figure beat expectations with a 298K versus the projected 188K figure. The previous report was also upgraded, hinting that the NFP could also have the same outcome. Initial jobless claims and import prices are up for release today but the focus is likely on the upcoming jobs release and next week’s Fed meeting.
The euro gave up ground to the dollar but tried to consolidate against its peers when medium-tier reports from the bloc came in mixed. German industrial production rebounded by 2.8% but the French trade balance printed a wider than expected deficit. The ECB decision is coming up today and even though no policy changes are expected, Draghi’s tone during the accompanying press conference could provide some clues on whether the central bank might be ready to taper or ease further.
The pound continued to slide in recent sessions even though there were no major reports out of the UK. There are no reports due today as well so pound price action could hinge on euro zone sentiment and overall market risk appetite.
The franc has been uneasy as it is also waiting for the ECB decision before deciding on a particular direction. Note that SNB officials have jawboned again recently and the foreign currency reserves showed a pretty notable increase, indicating that a bit of intervention may be in play. A dovish ECB statement could mean franc losses as well.
The Japanese yen lost ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to its gains against other counterparts as risk aversion stayed in play. Japanese average cash earnings posted a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.3% figure while the previous reading was upgraded. Preliminary machine tool orders and the BSI manufacturing index are due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the biggest losers for the day, particularly the Loonie which was bogged down by the large increase in US crude oil stockpiles. The EIA report showed a buildup of 8.2 million barrels versus the projected increase of 1.1 million barrels. Earlier today, the Chinese CPI fell below expectations at 0.8% versus the projected 1.9% figure and the earlier 2.5% gain. PPI was stronger than expected at 7.8%, though.