The US dollar gave up ground to its counterparts and gapped down over the weekend as risk appetite appeared to pick up. Data from the US economy came in line with expectations on Friday and there are no major reports up for release today, keeping sentiment as the main driver of price action.
The euro recovered against most of its peers on Friday, even though data from the region came in mixed. For now, it appears that sentiment surrounding the EU referendum are driving euro pairs, with the latest polls suggesting that the “stay” camp won’t go down without a fight. German PPI data is due today and a 0.4% increase in producer prices is eyed.
The pound posted some gains on Friday as traders likely booked profits off their shorts to avoid weekend risk. Over the weekend, the Rightmove HPI showed a 0.8% gain in house prices while some polls suggested a larger margin in favor of staying in the EU. There are no reports due from the UK today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the EU referendum on Thursday.
The franc returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite seemed to improve and traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, which suggests that sentiment could push franc pairs around.
The yen lost a lot of ground since Friday when intervention rumors started popping up. Japanese government officials have been busy jawboning the currency after its strong rallies last week, likely prompting traders to lighten up their positions. Over the weekend, the Japanese trade balance showed a larger surplus of 0.27T JPY.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls posted gains on Friday thanks to a return in risk-taking. Data from Canada was mixed as the core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.3% gain and the headline figure fell short with a 0.4% uptick versus the estimated 0.5% increase. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a drop in its Westpac consumer sentiment index from 109.6 to 106.0. Only the Canadian wholesale sales report is due today.