The US dollar gave up ground to its forex peers when the Fed refrained from hiking interest rates in their latest policy decision. FOMC members also lowered growth forecasts for this year and the next, acknowledging the recent slowdown in employment, but upgraded their inflation forecasts to account for higher commodity prices this year. The Empire State index and PPI beat expectations while industrial production and capacity utilization fell short. US CPI, Philly Fed index, current account balance, and initial jobless claims are up for release today.
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to yen strength. Medium-tier data from the euro zone came in line with expectations but the shared currency was driven by Brexit jitters weighing on European markets as a whole. Euro zone final CPI readings are up for release today.
The pound continued to chalk up losses against its peers as traders priced in the possibility of a Brexit. Jobs data from the UK was actually stronger than expected, as claimants fell 0.4K versus the projected 0.1K drop while the average earnings index held steady at 2.0% instead of falling to the estimated 1.7% figure. The BOE decision is lined up today along with the UK retail sales release.
The franc continued to take advantage of weakness in the European currencies and was also able to advance against the US dollar. Additional volatility is expected for franc pairs today as the SNB is set to make its policy decision. No actual changes are expected but the Swiss central bank might have some comments on the upcoming EU referendum.
The yen rallied after the BOJ decided to keep policy unchanged once more. The lower-yielding Japanese currency has also been the beneficiary of safe-haven flows leading up to the EU referendum but additional volatility could be seen during the BOJ press conference later today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but still caved to yen strength. In Australia, hiring was up by 17.9K versus the estimated 14.9K gain while the unemployment rate stood at 5.7% as expected. Dairy prices stayed flat in the latest NZ GDT auction but the country’s GDP beat expectations with a 0.7% expansion versus the estimated 0.5% growth figure for Q1.