The US dollar was off to a weak start in the day but it managed to recoup its losses during the US session, thanks to upbeat data. The CB consumer confidence index was down from 97.4 to 97.3 but this was higher than the projected 95.6 figure. New home sales also increased in June, following an upgraded May reading. On the other hand, the flash services PMI posted a larger than expected decline to 50.9 but still indicative of industry growth. Durable goods orders data is due today ahead of the FOMC statement, which might set the tone for rate hike expectations and longer-term USD price action.
The euro chalked up sharp losses despite seeing stronger than expected business climate data from Belgium. German import prices and GfK consumer sentiment data are up for release today, with the former expected to show a 0.6% increase and the latter likely to fall from 10.1 to 9.9. Still, stronger than expected figures from the euro zone’s top economy could revive strength for the shared currency.
The pound had a volatile run but was mostly weaker against its forex counterparts. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the preliminary GDP reading due. A growth figure of 0.5% is eyed for Q2, stronger than the earlier 0.4% expansion and probably enough to assure market participants that the economy is on strong footing ahead of the Brexit. UK CBI realized sales data is also due and a drop from 4 to 2 is eyed.
The franc was in a weak spot against the dollar and its European counterparts even though there were no major reports out of Switzerland. Today has the UBS consumption indicator due and any improvement from the previous 1.35 figure could allow the Swiss currency to recover.
The yen enjoyed a strong rally during the latter part of the Asian session when news reports indicated that the government stimulus package was much smaller than anticipated. This doused hopes of an aggressive easing announcement from the BOJ this week, leading bears to exit their short positions. There are no reports due from Japan today but any news updates related to economic stimulus could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls staged a bit of a recovery yesterday thanks to a pickup in risk appetite. Crude oil prices were still weak as traders priced in a buildup in stockpiles, but the markets appear to be expecting a reduction of 2.1 million barrels for the US EIA data. In Australia, the quarterly CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain, reducing expectations of an RBA cut.