The US dollar got a boost from risk aversion in yesterday’s sessions, thanks to the IMF’s downgrades on global growth forecasts. Building permits and housing starts came in line with expectations. There are no reports due from the US economy today so risk sentiment could be the main driver of price action.
The euro weakened to the dollar and yen but managed to hold on to its gains against the commodity currencies. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, as Germany reported that its ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 19.2 to -6.2 while the region’s reading dropped from 20.2 to -14.7. German PPI and euro zone current account balance are due today.
The pound was unable to take advantage of stronger than expected CPI readings as the IMF downgraded growth forecasts for the UK and the global economy. Headline CPI rose from 0.3% to 0.5%, outpacing the estimate at 0.4%, while core CPI rose from 1.2% to 1.4% versus the consensus at 1.3%. For today, the jobs figures are up for release. Claimant count could increase by 4.1K versus the previous 0.4K drop while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.0%. The average earnings index might rise from 2.0% to 2.3% to show faster wage growth.
The franc had a mixed performance as it weakened to the dollar but advanced to the comdolls and European currencies. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today, leaving the franc to trade as a counter currency.
The yen took advantage of the return in risk aversion after the IMF downgraded global growth forecasts. There have been no reports out of Japan recently and talks of additional stimulus appear to have fizzled out. There are still no reports lined up from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls suffered sharp losses due to falling commodity prices, particularly for the oil-related Loonie. New Zealand reported a flat reading for its GDT index in the latest dairy auction. In Australia, the MI leading index printed a 0.2% drop. Crude oil inventories are due next and an increase in stockpiles could spur more losses for the Loonie.