Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 07, 2016)

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent gains despite mixed data from the US. The trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of $41.1 billion but the ISM non-manufacturing PMI showed a strong jump from 52.9 to 56.5. The FOMC minutes contained no surprises but it did reveal that policymakers shifted to a neutral stance even before the EU referendum. The ADP non-farm employment change report and Challenger job cuts data are due today, giving hints on how the NFP might turn out.

EUR

The euro advanced to some of its peers when ECB head Draghi refrained from making any additional dovish remarks. Still, German factory orders missed expectations and printed a flat reading instead of the projected 1.0% gain. For today, German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up. ECB minutes are also up for release.

GBP

The pound consolidated against the dollar and yen but was weaker to the comdolls as there were no major updates from the UK economy. More property funds are refusing client withdrawals, fueling speculations that additional financial stress could be seen. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 1.2% drop is expected.

CHF

The franc was still stuck in consolidation as traders refrained from trading this currency for fear of additional SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has Swiss CPI and foreign currency reserves data on tap.

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite somewhat improved. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday while today has a speech by Governor Kuroda. Risk sentiment could continue pushing yen pairs around as well.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls regained ground in the latter trading sessions as risk appetite improved. Data from Canada was weaker than expected as the trade deficit widened in May and was downgraded in the previous month. Still, the report showed a pickup in volumes for energy imports and exports, suggesting that the industry may be turning a corner. Canadian building permits and Ivey PMI numbers are due today.

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