The US dollar rallied ahead of the FOMC minutes release but retreated upon seeing that committee members are still divided when it comes to their tightening and unwinding time line. Some thought that balance sheet reinvestment should start in a couple of months while others preferred waiting until later in the year or early next year. US ADP non-farm employment change data and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI are lined up today and another batch of strong readings could boost NFP expectations.


The euro was still mostly treading sideways as final services PMI readings came in mixed. Retail sales for the region came in line with expectations of a 0.2% gain. German factory orders, which could show a 1.9% rebound, and ECB minutes are due today. Any indication that the central bank is shifting to a less dovish stance could spur more gains for the shared currency.


The pound is under a bit of pressure as its services PMI came in slightly weaker than expected. The reading slipped from 53.8 to 53.4 in June, lower than the projected dip to 53.6 to reflect a slower pace of industry growth in line with the manufacturing and construction sectors. There are no major reports due from the UK today.


The franc was able to regain a bit of ground even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. Today has the CPI lined up and a flat reading is eyed, slower than the earlier 0.2% uptick in price levels, but an upside surprise could mean more gains for the Swiss currency.


The yen was able to benefit from risk-off vibes in the Asian region as traders turned their attention to North Korea’s nuclear missile launch test. Although the missile landed near Japanese territory, the safe-haven currency fared better than its US counterpart as the hermit nation aims to target US soil. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie returned some of its recent wins when crude oil took a large hit on ongoing tensions between Saudi and Qatar. The former previously gave a list of demands and the deadline is approaching for Qatar to comply before any further sanctions are imposed. Australia’s trade balance is coming up and a wider surplus of 1.00 billion AUD versus the earlier 0.56 billion AUD figure is expected. US crude oil inventories are also due and a 2.4 million draw is eyed.

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