The US dollar had a volatile time during the FOMC statement, as the currency initially rallied but instantly gave back its gains. According to the Fed, they are monitoring the global financial and economic developments closely, removing the reference on balanced risks to their outlook. FOMC officials also reiterated that they would continue to tighten at a gradual pace. US durable goods orders and initial jobless claims are due today.

The euro was able to stay afloat in recent trading sessions, as the German GfK consumer climate index came in slightly better than expected. The reading held steady at 9.4 instead of dropping to 9.3. For today, German preliminary CPI and the Spanish unemployment rate data are due, with the former expected to show a 1% drop and the latter likely to print a drop from 21.2% to 21.1%.

The pound had a mixed performance as it took advantage of dollar weakness but caved against its other forex rivals. Data from the UK came in weaker than expected, as the Nationwide HPI came in at 0.3% versus 0.6% while BBA mortgage approvals fell to 44K. The UK preliminary GDP reading is due today and a 0.5% growth figure is eyed.

The franc has been depreciating against its peers, as the SNB is rumored to be intervening in the forex market ahead of potential ECB easing in March. Data from Switzerland showed an improvement, as the UBS consumption indicator rose from a downgraded 1.55 figure to 1.62. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

The yen weakened against most of its counterparts ahead of Friday’s BOJ statement, as the retail sales report missed expectations. Consumer spending fell by 1.1% instead of showing the projected 0.1% uptick. Tokyo core CPI, national core CPI, and household spending data are due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Oil and the Loonie managed to stay afloat despite the surge in US crude oil inventories, as other members of the OPEC seemed willing to attend an emergency meeting. The RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 2.50% as expected but kept the door open for further easing. In Australia, import prices slid 0.3% versus the projected 0.8% drop.


One thought on “Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 28, 2016)”

  1. Charles Bidner says:

    Thank you for the insight Kate, I always read your outlook post but do not leave a comment in appreciation, will try to be a little more active in that regard. Many thanks , have a great day.

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