Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 05, 2017)

USD

The US dollar gave up ground across the board when the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers were split between faster and gradual tightening. While many expect inflation to reach their 2% target soon on rising energy prices, others expressed concern about hiking too soon ahead of Trump’s fiscal policy changes. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report is due and a slower gain of 171K is eyed, compared to the previous 216K increase. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is also due and a dip from 57.2 to 56.6 is expected.

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to comdoll strength. Euro zone flash CPI estimates turned out stronger than expected, with the headline reading up from 0.6% to 1.1% and the core figure rising from 0.8% to 0.9%. Final services PMI readings were mostly upgraded while the Spanish unemployment change report showed a larger than expected reduction in joblessness.

GBP

The pound advanced to the dollar but was barely able to make much headway against its peers, despite stronger than expected PMI readings. The construction PMI beat consensus with a rise from 52.8 to 54.2 instead of dropping to 52.6. Services PMI is due today and a fall from 55.2 to 54.8 is expected.

CHF

The franc was able to recover against the dollar and held on to its gains against the pound, but it gave up ground to the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday so market sentiment was the main driver of price action. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.1% drop in price levels is eyed.

JPY

The yen was one of the stronger performers as traders pared their dollar holdings. There have been no major reports out of Japan recently while today has the 10-year bond auction scheduled. Another dip in demand could bring yen weakness, although market sentiment is still likely to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was able to benefit from stronger oil prices in recent trading sessions, following reports that Kuwait Petroleum Corporation already disclosed its planned production cuts to its clients. The API crude oil inventories report also indicated a larger than expected draw in stockpiles, ahead of today’s EIA report which might show a draw of 1.8 million barrels. China’s Caixin services PMI indicated a rise from 53.1 to 53.4, following the earlier increase in the manufacturing component from 50.9 to 51.9.