The US dollar chalked up another day of losses as traders are starting to get weary of waiting for Trump’s “phenomenal” tax reform announcement. According to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, it will take until 2018 or so before the impact of the policy changes kick in and GDP growth could reach 3% at best, not the 4% expansion promised during the election campaign. New home sales and revised UoM consumer sentiment data are due today.
The euro made a bit of a rebound against its peers as more polls indicated that Macron could overtake Le Pen in the French elections. This eases fears of a Frexit and further instability in the region. Germany’s final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.4% as expected but the GfK consumer climate index fell from 10.2 to 10.0 instead of improving to 10.3. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
The pound broke higher against most of its forex counterparts when news of another potential Scottish referendum broke out. Keep in mind that Scotland voted to stay in the EU during the referendum last year but has previously held a national vote whether or not to stay in the UK. With that, renewed uncertainty in the region could push the pound back down, although price action also hinges on the discussions in the House of Lords.
The franc had a mixed performance as it advanced to the euro, consolidated to the pound, and gave up ground against most of its other peers. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment and country-specific updates could push franc pairs around.
The Japanese yen was unable to establish a clear direction in recent trading as it also reacted mostly to country-specific catalysts. There are still no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could be the main driving force for yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie encountered some headwinds from weaker than expected private capital expenditure data and a bit of jawboning from RBA head Lowe. US crude oil inventories posted a smaller than expected increase of 0.6 million barrels in stockpiles so the Loonie stayed supported. Canadian CPI numbers are due today, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core figure to post a 0.1% downtick.