The US dollar staged a strong rally after the Fed hiked interest rates and signaled room for three more tightening moves next year, an increase from their September forecast of just two hikes. Policymakers also upgraded growth and jobs forecasts for next year. US retail sales came in weaker than expected for November while PPI readings beat estimates. US CPI, initial jobless claims, Empire State manufacturing index, and Philly Fed index are lined up today.
The euro slid against the dollar but held its ground against most of its other counterparts. Data from the euro zone was mixed as French final CPI came in line with expectations of a flat reading while the region’s industrial production showed a 0.1% decline versus the projected 0.2% uptick. Flash manufacturing and services PMI reports are due from Germany and France today.
The pound got a boost from stronger than expected jobs data, with the claimant count up by 2.4K versus the projected 6.2K increase. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.8% as expected while the average earnings index improved from an upgraded 2.4% to 2.5%. UK retail sales is due today ahead of the BOE interest rate decision and release of MPC minutes. No change to interest rates or bond purchases is expected.
The franc functioned mostly as a counter currency even though Swiss PPI beat expectations with a 0.1% gain instead of the projected 0.1% drop. Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations index improved from 8.9 to 12.9. The SNB decision is scheduled today so traders are wary of jawboning or actual currency intervention, although the odds appear slim.
The yen resumed its slide as traders flocked to the dollar after the FOMC decision. Japan’s industrial production report was downgraded from a 0.1% uptick to a flat reading but its flash manufacturing PMI improved from 51.3 to 51.9, outpacing the 51.5 consensus. No other reports are due from Japan today so bond yields and market sentiment could push the yen around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls lost to dollar strength but managed to advance against the yen. Crude oil inventories posted another draw in stockpiles of 2.4 million barrels versus the projected reduction of 1.4 million barrels. Australia reported a higher than expected employment change gain at 39.1K versus 17.6K but its jobless rate increased. Canadian manufacturing sales is due next, along with a speech from BOC Governor Poloz.