The US dollar was able to advance against most of its peers on tax reform optimism, relatively good data, and risk-off flows. The ADP non-farm employment change came in at 190K versus the projected 189K figure but was still lower than the earlier 235K gain. Unit labor costs were revised to show a 0.2% drop from the initially reported 0.5% gain. Only the initial jobless claims is due today so traders could focus on political headlines or place their positions ahead of the NFP.
The euro was in a weak spot even as data turned out strong. German factory orders rose by 0.5% instead of posting the projected 0.2% fall and the region’s retail PMI improved from 51.1 to 52.4. German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up, just ahead of the revised GDP release.
The pound continued to slump against its rivals on Brexit issues as many warned of a potential collapse in May’s government if the Irish border issue isn’t sorted out right away. There were no reports out of the UK then and only the Halifax HPI is lined up today, so the focus could remain on Brexit developments.
The franc was stuck mostly in consolidation, except against the Loonie, even with the rise in risk aversion. Swiss CPI was weaker than expected with a 0.1% dip instead of staying flat. Swiss jobless rate and the SNB foreign currency reserves are lined up today, with a big gain in the latter indicative of central bank intervention.
The yen was able to end mostly in the green thanks to risk-off moves. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and only the leading indicators is due today, which means that risk sentiment could be the main driver of yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was edging higher ahead of the BOC decision in anticipation of a hawkish statement, but bulls were very much disappointed to find out that the central bank is taking a more cautious stance. Crude oil inventories posted a larger draw but oil prices failed to rebound. Australia’s trade balance and Canada’s Ivey PMI are lined up next, along with New Zealand’s quarterly manufacturing sales data.