Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 01, 2017)

USD

The US dollar swung this way and that on tax reform updates and more developments in Washington. Economic data from the US has been mostly stronger than expected, with personal spending and income both surpassing expectations and initial jobless claims printing a lower increase in unemployment. Traders are paying close attention to tax reform progress in Senate, which is due to have a full vote on their version of the bill this week. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is also due today and a dip from 58.7 to 58.4 is eyed.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains despite weaker than expected data form the region. The headline flash CPI rose from 1.4% to 1.5% versus the 1.6% estimate while the core reading held steady at 0.9% instead of improving to 1.0%. German retail sales missed expectations while the unemployment change turned out strong. Only the final manufacturing PMI reports are lined up today.

GBP

The pound continued to rake in gains on improving Brexit sentiment even as there were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday. Today has the UK manufacturing PMI due and a gain from 56.3 to 56.6 is expected, with stronger than expected results likely pushing the pound higher.

CHF

The franc regained ground against its rivals as risk aversion lingered in the financial markets. The Swiss GDP came in line with expectations of a 0.6% expansion while the earlier figure was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.4%. The KOF economic barometer also beat expectations while Swiss retail sales posted a surprise 3% slump. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due next and a rise from 62.0 to 62.6 is eyed.

JPY

The Japanese yen had a mixed round despite a couple of reports beating expectations. Household spending was flat instead of falling by 0.2% while capital spending rose by 4.2%. National core CPI and Tokyo core CPI came in line with estimates while the final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 53.8 to 53.6.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie lost more ground even as the OPEC announced an output deal extension. Traders are wary of the June review that might still lead to the deal being called off if the market overheats by then. New Zealand’s overseas trade index posted a meager 0.7% uptick versus the estimated 1.3% increase while Australia’s AIG manufacturing index jumped to 57.3. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI disappointed with a drop from 51.0 to 50.8 versus the estimated rise to 51.2. Canada’s jobs report and monthly GDP are due next.

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