The US dollar gave up ground on profit-taking and weak data on Friday. Industrial production and capacity utilization figures missed expectations while the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index showed a decline in optimism. Meanwhile, the Empire State manufacturing index rose from 0.6 to 9.6 to indicate a much stronger pace of industry growth. US building permits and housing starts data are up for release today.

The euro regained a bit of ground on Friday, even though medium-tier reports came in mixed. There are no major reports up for release from the euro zone today, keeping market sentiment in play.

The pound was still in a weak spot last week, especially since the BOE announced that one of its hawkish members, Martin Weale, is set to be replaced by a slightly more dovish one. Data from the UK was weaker than expected as construction output sank by 0.3% instead of staying flat. Only the Rightmove HPI is due from the UK today and a 1.3% increase was printed.

The franc was still stuck in consolidation to the dollar on Friday, as there were no major reports out of Switzerland then. There are still no major reports due from the Swiss economy today so risk sentiment could push franc pairs around.

The yen was able to benefit from risk aversion, as traders reacted to the earthquake in Japan and reports of the Doha meeting failing to produce a deal. Japan’s industrial production figure was revised to show a smaller decline of 5.2% from the initially reported 6.2% drop. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls traded carefully last Friday, as traders lightened up their holdings ahead of the Doha meeting. This meeting failed to produce an agreement to cap production since Saudi Arabia insisted on Iran’s cooperation but the latter wasn’t present then. Canada’s manufacturing sales slumped 3.3% versus the projected 1.4% drop. New Zealand printed a stronger than expected 0.2% quarterly CPI.

One thought on “Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 18, 2016)”

  1. Andrew E says:

    Thanks for the analysis Kate.

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