The US dollar was weaker against its forex rivals even though the FOMC minutes showed a couple of votes to hike interest rates in March. Fed policymakers are still wary of inflation trends but acknowledged the strength in employment and housing. FOMC members also discussed the global economic slowdown but cited that the US economy remains resilient. US initial jobless claims and a testimony by Fed head Yellen are lined up today.

The euro broke slightly higher to the dollar but gave up ground to the commodity currencies when risk appetite improved. Data from the euro zone was better than expected, as German industrial production dipped 0.5% versus the projected 1.8% decline. The ECB meeting minutes are due today.

The pound was barely able to take advantage of dollar weakness as Brexit concerns continued to weigh on the British currency. Only the Halifax HPI is up for release from the UK today and this might not be enough to give the currency support.

The franc gave up ground to the dollar and most of its forex peers when risk appetite improved. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and today has the foreign currency reserves report on tap. A large increase could revive talks of currency intervention, driving the franc lower against its counterparts.

The yen gave up ground when risk-taking took place towards the latter trading sessions. Japanese leading indicators fell from 101.8 to 99.8, suggesting potential weakness in the coming months. There are no major reports due from Japan today but BOJ Governor Kuroda has a testimony lined up.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to make a strong recovery in recent sessions when crude oil prices picked up. The US EIA inventories report showed a reduction of 4.9 million barrels in stockpiles instead of the projected increase of 3.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, some OPEC nations expressed willingness to cap production even if Iran does not cooperate. Canadian building permits data is due today.


One thought on “Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 07, 2016)”

  1. Andrew E says:

    Thanks for the analysis Kate. Would be interested to see a view on short term bias included too (although many of mine are neutral at the moment too to be fair)

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