This week we have seen most of the data from Eurozone remain relatively unchanged from the previous forecast and actual data. The Core CPI and CPI was remained the same at 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. YoY and QoQ GDP also remained unchanged at 1.6% and 0.3%. Unemployment Rate (Sep) was stable at 10%. The Eurozone had some growth in the fourth quarter. The Markit Eurozone PMI increased from 52.6 in September to 53.3 in October, with the fastest growth seen in manufacturing as well as in the services sector. Full Report
Technical summary 31 October – 04 September
• EURUSD – Euro, strong against the USD.
• EURGBP – Euro, weak against the GBP.
• EURJPY – Euro was in a range against JPY but ended the week stronger.
• EURCHF – Euro, weak against the CHF.
• EURAUD – Euro in a range against the AUD.
• EURNZD – Euro in a range against NZD.
• EURCAD – Euro, strong against CAD.
Overall – EUR has been strong this week with EUSTX50 down since the end of October until the end of the first week of September.
• There were 266737 short positions on 25 Nov that decreased to 263828 by 1 Nov 2016.
• On 25 Nov 2016 there were 142881 long positions and they deceased to 126443 by 1 Nov 2016 (Full Report http://forex.today/the-commitment-of-traders-report-total-non-hedging-fx-open-positions/)
• We would like to assume that a decrease in short positions would translate in an increase in long positions and would be consistent with the EUR strength in the technical summary session above. It is important to tone that most of the EUR strength was observed toward the end of the week
The week ahead (7 Oct – 11 Nov 2016)
Not much data is expected for EUR this week.
• Monday – Sentix Inventor Confidence (Nov), Retail Sales (MoM)(Sep), Retail Sales (YoY)(Sep)