In the previous London and New York sessions EURUSD carved out a path that resembled a reversal pattern on the 15M:

I was reluctant to enter long because the London session had ended by that time, and market liquidity was draining. Also, Tokyo session participants have a tendency to trade against the previous sessions’ trend.

I was surpised to see EURUSD spike up during the Tokyo sesion. I thought I really missed the train. However European traders sold EURUSD. On a 15M basis, price seems to have entered a range.

If price should break out of range to the upside, I will attempt to enter long on the first retracement:

Because of the previous weeks’ Dollar bullishness, I think it will take one or two more bounces on or near the 1.177 level before Euro bulls come back to the market. I will have to look for a reversal pattern to form on the hourly chart as well as the 15M before I can confidently enter long on the EURUSD.

Should the EURUSD break below 1.177, a historical support level going back to December 2017 will have been breached. The next historical level will then be around 1.16, which is also the 50 Fib retracement of the EURUSD’s 2017 surge. I am more optimistic the market will be ready for a EURUSD reversal at this level.

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