EURUSD made such a strong rally in recent trading and might be due for a quick pullback ahead of top-tier events. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low on the 1-hour chart shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken near-term resistance at the 1.0650 minor psychological level.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, stochastic is heading south from the overbought zone to show that bears might take control of price action from here.
The moving averages are close to the 61.8% Fib so they might hold as dynamic support as well. A break below the Fibs could lead to a drop to the swing low near 1.0500 while a bounce could spur a test of the swing high near 1.0800 or higher.
The shared currency shrugged off its losses after the Italian referendum as traders’ fears were calmed by the idea that PM Renzi could delay his resignation until the budget is passed, easing a few fiscal concerns in the country. Also, reports that Greek’s creditors could restructure debt upon evaluating the progress on economic and financial reforms in the country also supported the euro.
The dollar didn’t have much of a reaction to mostly stronger than expected US economic data, as traders have already priced in the idea of a Fed rate hike. Bulls could book profits soon in anticipation of Fed remarks emphasizing that they won’t be tightening again anytime soon.
The ECB statement is scheduled for later this week so this should add to EURUSD volatility. Traders are expecting the central bank to increase or more likely extend its QE program in order to help the economy achieve its inflation targets sooner.