Why I am bear on Euro
1. The central banking policy has remained unchanged amd is stil expansionary. The ECB is still carrying out the purchasing of bonds to weaken the Euro, stimulate economic growth through increased lending and expenditure for consumers post the 2008 recession. Weak currency creates a sell-off bias.
2. The COT report indicates that there are more sellers than buyers in net-non commercial positions(me and you). Thia gives an indication that the market of the EURUSD is more bearish than bullish.
3. I am a dollar bull because of interest rates increase since December by FOMC. The FOMC has mentioned a possibility of further rate hikes in 2017 and maybe market may possibly price in bullish dollar against the Euro.
Data– has been positive with CPI and GDP showing an increase from previous December data.
CPI is 1.8% vs previous 1.1%. GDP at 0.5% followed by a decrease in unemployment at 9.6% vs the previous 9.7%.
* The data above have influenced further highs for the EURUSD for Euro bulls. Now price is headed towards M4 which is the Bear sell entry zone @1.0850 or @1.0900
NB *I n anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting we can assume that the the Fed will remain dovish and not increase interest rates and that the USD will favour a bullish bias on the US Dollar.
Bears are patiently waiting to sell at the psychological level of 1.0850 or 1.0900.
I want to sell the EUR against the USD