The EUR/USD has reached new highs today, but the bears are still in the game and have driven the rate down again. We have a minor decrease as the rate wants to test and retest a major broken resistance, remains to see if we’ll have a valid or a false breakout. Price has decreased a little as the USDX has managed to register humble gains, the index has touched new lows in the morning, but the 100.15 level has stopped the bearish momentum. The USDX remains under massive selling pressure on the short term, is expected to resume the bearish momentum, could hit the 99.84 static support in the start of the upcoming week.
A USDX’s further drop will force the USD to depreciate further versus its major counterparts, the traders were somehow disappointed after the FOMC and could sell the greenback in the coming period. As you already know, the Federal Reserve has raised the Federal Funds Rate from 0.75% to 1.00% as expected, but the traders weren’t impressed by the FOMC Press Conference.
I believe that the good United States data will lift the dollar again and maybe will force the FED to make another hike till the end of the year.
The Euro has decreased a little also because the Euro-zone data have failed to impress today, actually the data have come much worse than expected, the Trade Balance has disappointed as the surplus has decreased from 23.1B to 15.7B, has come much below the 22.3B estimate, while the Italian Trade Balance has fallen from 5.73B to -0.57B, even if the estimate was 3.45B.
The pair has decreased sharply in the European trading session, ahead the US data release, price has stayed lowed even if the US data have come in mixed, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment surged from 96.3 points to 97.7 points, beating the 97.1 estimate, the Industrial Production rose only by 0.0%, less compared to the 0.3% estimate, while Capacity Utilization Rate has dropped from 75.5% to 75.4%, has come below the 75.5% prediction.
The US CB Leading Index has increased by 0.6%, exceeding the 0.4% estimate, moreover the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations surged by 2.4%, less versus the 2.7% in the previous reporting period. The US Labor Market Conditions Index remains steady at 1.3 points.

The rate has decreased and is trying to erase the yesterday's gains, but this drop could be only temporary before the buyers will take full control again and will lead the price much higher. Could represent only a test and retest the broken sliding line (descending dotted line), however the breakout needs confirmation, because a false breakout will send the rate tumbling in the coming period. The sentiment will change if the rate will stabilize above the sliding line, we could see a broader increase if will consolidate above the broken upside obstacle.

Remains to see what will happen in the coming days because the price has failed to reach the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork, could drop even to retest the upper median line (UML) of the major descending pitchfork if will close below the sliding line.

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Olimpiu Tuns

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