The rate has increased today as the US dollar index has dropped sharply in the first part of the day, the index has squeezed a little only after the United States had released the economic figures. The EUR/USD has increased is is trying to retest a broken support level, the United States and the Euro-zone data have come in mixed today, the rate was driven higher by the technical factors, but tomorrow the fundamental events could drive the price, we have high impact data from the United States, but also from the Euro-zone, so will be better if you’ll keep an eye on the economic calendar tomorrow.
The Euro has increased also because the German Import Prices rose by 0.1% in September, the indicator has met the expectations, the indicator has managed to increase again after the 0.2% drop from August, while the Italian Retail Sales have disappointed today, have decreased by 0.1% even if the currency traders have expected to see a 0.2% increase. The Gfk German Consumer Climate has decreased from 10.0 to 9.7 points, despite that the estimate was 10.1 points, the data didn’t impress today, but the Euro has posted little gains versus its rivals.
The US data have come mixed as well, the Goods Trade Balance has increased from -59.2B to -56.1B, has come surprisingly better because the estimate was -60.6B, while the Flash Services has increased from 52.3 to 54.8 points, signaling that the expansion continues in the services sector, the indicator has increased more versus the 52.4 estimate. The New Home Sales have disappointed a little today because has increased from 575K only to 593K and have failed to reach the 601K estimate, unfortunately for the USD, the Prelim Wholesale Inventories have increased by 0.2%, more than the 0.1% estimate.

You can see that the rate has found support right below the median line (ml) of the minor descending pitchfork and now is pressuring the 1.0908 broken support, remains to see if the bulls will be strong enough to force the rate to close above the mentioned resistance level. The price could move somehow sideways on the short term till will reach and retest the upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork, the perspective remains bearish as long as the rate is trading inside the minor descending pitchfork , we’ll have a great trading opportunity if the price will slip again below the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and if will retest this level.

The rate has increased somehow natural after the impressive sell-off, the perspective remains bearish despite the minor rebound, you can see that the rate is decreasing after the breakout above the 1.0908 static resistance (support has turned into resistance), remains to see what will happen on the USDX, because a decrease will help the EUR/USD bulls to push the rate much above the today’s high.

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Olimpiu Tuns

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