EURUSD reversed from 1.16680 and rose 60 pips during the last hour after reports of a potential missile test from North Korea this weekend.


EURUSD keeps looking south, as prospects of a third rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting remain well and sound, particularly after the auspicious results from September’s average hourly earnings, a key gauge of wage inflation closely followed by both the Fed and investors.

In the meantime, recent Fedspeak has been USD-supportive, while the likelihood that the Trump’s tax reform proposal could pass legislation in the next months is also another key driver sustaining the buck’s rally, all helping the US Dollar Index to climb to fresh multi-week peaks in tandem with US yields.




One thought on “EURUSD Forecast and Technical Analysis October 9-13”

  1. Hadyn S. says:

    You bring up some good points. I haven’t heard or read of any Fed gov’s or board members talk of any hike before the Dec meeting, but I too noticed that healthy wage increase which is one of their key focuses. There are a couple that keep them hesitant, and thats the PCE core @ 1.3 yoy, and CPI @ 1.7 yoy, which they’d also like to see something other than slowing or the same rate of expansion. We have the CPI coming next week, the Biege Book on the 18th, and the CPE a few day before the Nov decision. So if the wage numbers last week weren’t just a one and done, and some of these other eco #’s come in closer to what they’re looking for, I can see where a bunch of the “I’m open to a Dec hike” crowd bandwagon jumping over to the “We need to hike sooner than later” crowd. They have a bunch of speeches this month, so hopefully they’ll tip their cards. I’d certainly like to be in already, and on the right side of that shock. We also have some ECB rumblings about asset purchase tapering which may come out in their Oct 26 meeting/decision, but I’m sure if Draghi knows, he’ll hold of until the Fed hike drops the EUR. Thanks for the post!

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