EURUSD Forecast And Technical Analysis November 13-17


EURUSD trade has been affected by the US tax reform progress past week. USD not only failed to continue rallying, but lost its bullish charm somewhere between disappointment around the tax reform and plummeting equities, and an empty macroeconomic calendar, which left investors clueless on what’s next.

The upcoming week at least will bring a more interesting macroeconomic calendar, with relevant releases at both shores of the Atlantic, including German inflation, EU GDP and inflation, and US inflation and retail sales among others.

Although tax-reform developments seem to dominate the headlines, USD’s performance in the week ahead will be affected by 3 factors – politics, economics and monetary policy. There’s no doubt that politics will be the primary driver but with 6 Federal Reserve presidents speaking, the prospect of rate hikes could also affect how the Dollar trades. Retail sales and consumer prices will also be released and investors will be eager to see if last month’s sharp increase in jobs translated into more spending. While we believe that rate-hike talk could lift the greenback, lower gas prices and zero wage growth in October along with the drop in consumer sentiment means spending may be restrained. So on balance, we expect a mildly positive boost from Fed speak and U.S. data.



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