The EUR/USD continues to increase as the US dollar index has dropped sharply today, the currency pair is targeting new highs on the short term, but remains to see what will happen on the USDX because the index has reached an important dynamic support. The pair has edged higher even if the Euro-zone and US economic data has come mixed, the USD remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve has disappointed on Wednesday, the Federal Funds Rate has remained on hold, this situation has sent the greenback lower.
The German Retail sales have dropped by 0.1% in June, has come worse than the 0.0% estimate, the French Prelim Gross Domestic Product has increased only by 0.0%, even if the traders have expected to see a 0.2% growth. Meanwhile the Spanish CPI has dropped by 0.6%, more by 0.1% compared to the -0.5% prediction, while the Spanish Flash GDP has increased by 0.7%, matching expectations. The Euro-zone Unemployment Rate has remained steady at 10.1%, the Euro has received a helping hand from the CPI Flash Estimate has increased by 0.2%, has beaten the 0.1% estimate, moreover the Prelim Flash Gross Domestic Product has increased by 0.3%, has come in line with expectations, the Core CPI Flash Estimate has increased by 0.9%, matching expectations, so the Euro wasn’t supported too much by the economic data, the EUR/USD has increased because the USDX has fallen drastically today.
The United States economic figures have failed to save the USD from downside, even if the greenback is pushed lower by the fundamental factors, the United States currency is too heavy right now to stay higher.

The price has jumped above the median line of the descending pitchfork, could increase further if will manage to stabilize above this broken obstacle, the rate has jumped also above the 1.1123 static resistance, we could have a minor decrease in the fresh start of next week because the price could try to retest the broken median lien before will resume the bullish movement. Could approach the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork if the US dollar index will fall further in the coming days. The pair remains somehow under pressure even if the rate is struggling to rebound and to recover after the last drop, the perspective remains somehow bearish as long as the rate is located below the lower median line of the major ascending pitchfork.

I’ve added the H4 chart to show you better the price action, the price is increasing inside of a short ascending pitchfork, you can see that has failed to touch the median line of this pitchfork in the first attempt, another failure could drive the price down on the short term, as I’ve said higher, the rate could decrease to retest the broken median line of the descending pitchfork before will resume the upward movement, could drop even to retest the lower median line of the minor ascending pitchfork..

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Olimpiu Tuns

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