The EUR/USD has increased in the early morning, but the perspective remains bearish on the short term as the price is located below below and important dynamic resistance, the USD could drag the price down if the USDX will have enough energy to jump higher again, the index has decreased sharply in yesterday’s US trading session, has resumed the bearish movement today, but the index could start another leg higher if the 94.23 static support will hold and will reject the rate in the coming hours.
The EUR remains firm after the Euro-zone economic data, the Current Account has increased from 26.3B to 36.2B, have increased unexpectedly higher as the traders have expected a drop to 24.7B,while the Italian Trade Balance has decreased from 5.23B to 4.52B, has reached the lowest level of the last 2-months. The EUR/USD is pressuring an important resistance level, remain to see how will reach after the ECB President speech, Mario Draghi will speak later this afternoon in Munich, but I don’t think that will have any major impact on the price action.
Technically the pair is somehow expected to drop again because the USDX has could increase again till the end of the week, the greenback could increase if the United States data will come in line with expectations or better. The Building Permits could increase from 1.12M to 1.15M in May, while the Housing Starts could decrease from 1.17M to 1.15M in May, the data could help the USD to increase further on the short term versus all its counterparts, but a disappointment today will punish the USD, could slip lower again if the data will come worse in this afternoon, in my opinion the USD looks bullish and could ignore any poor data today.

The rate remains on a declining path on the short term as long as the price is trading inside the descending pitchfork’s body, the rate is challenging the median line of the descending pitchfork, could drop again if this dynamic resistance will hold. Any jump above the median line of the descending pitchfork followed by a consolidation could attract more buyers again as the pair has failed once again to reach and retest the lower median lie of the, we could have a broader decrease only when the rate will drop below the lower median line of the ascending pitchfork. Right now is very important to stay below the median line of the descending pitchfork to maintain a bearish perspective on the short term.

I’ve added the H4 chart to show you better the price action, you can see that we had high volatility in yesterday’s trading session, the rate has decreased significantly, but was rejected from above the lower median line of the Daily ascending pitchfork. I’ve drawn also a minor ascending pitchfork, the rate has failed to reach the minor median line and now could slip lower again after the impressive bullish run. The USD needs a bullish spark right now, the USDX hovers above the 94.23 horizontal support, a USDX increase will help the USD to increase further.

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Olimpiu Tuns

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